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Final score prediction for Saints vs. Buccaneers

The New Orleans Saints’ season could end in just a few days. That’s what’s at stake in their Divisional Round game: single-loss elimination. It just adds more pressure onto them to take care of business against a familiar opponent in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady has never been beaten three times in a single season, a fact that’s been all the rage in the discourse surrounding this matchup. But Brady had never been beaten twice in a single season before the Saints did it, so don’t let that weigh too heavily on your mind. Besides, three-game sweeps are more common than the narratives might suggest.

Anyway: let’s dive into the matchup and take a shot at maybe our final score prediction of the year.

Saints' keys to success

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Will Trey Hendrickson be cleared to play? His neck injury has slowed him down for a few weeks now, but he’s been practicing on a limited basis, so he should at least be questionable for Sunday; we’ll know for certain once the Friday injury report rolls out. But getting him back would be huge. Pro Football Focus credited him with 10 pressures in two games with Tampa Bay this year (including three sacks), and he’s outright taken over drives at times with constant pressure off Brady’s blind side. If he can’t play, it means the Saints will have to manufacture pressure with blitzes and mismatches, like lining David Onyemata and Cameron Jordan up against weak links in the Buccaneers line. Which, to be fair, they should be doing anyway. On offense, New Orleans should continue to enjoy the mismatches they’ve found against the Buccaneers defense. They’ve targeted linebacker Devin White in the run game, where he’s logged half of his missed tackles on the year in two games with the Saints. Alvin Kamara makes everyone look bad, but he’s a tough matchup for White specifically. Look for the Saints to go after him again on Sunday. In the passing game, it’s best that they avoid Carlton Davis altogether after his strong Week 1 game with Michael Thomas. The rest of the Bucs secondary is vulnerable enough to where trying to win that one-on-one matchup isn’t worth the hassle.

Saints' biggest concerns

AP Photo/Jason Behnken

Can the protection hold up? New Orleans should match up well with the Buccaneers edge rushers, but Ndamukong Suh can win inside much like Akiem Hicks did a week ago against rookie guard Cesar Ruiz. And Tampa Bay should try to dial up more blitzes than in the past to avoid letting their linebackers be picked on in coverage. The interior trio of Ruiz, Erik McCoy, and Andrus Peat must be on top of their game while tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk focus on corralling Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. On defense, the Saints secondary must compete against every pass. Brady has been on fire since they last saw him, benefiting hugely from the addition of receiver Antonio Brown (who has caught at least one touchdown pass in each of his last four games). While Brown hasn’t put up huge receiving numbers himself, the attention he commands from defenders has freed up opportunities for teammates Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa’s run game is the weakest among teams left in the playoffs -- averaging just 94.9 rushing yards per game -- so it’s vital for the Saints defense to take that element away quickly and force Brady to step up in the face of their pass rush.

Final score prediction

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Maybe Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles calls a different game than he has in four previous meetings with the Saints and successfully pressures Brees into making too many mistakes. Maybe Bruce Arians takes a different approach on offense and gives Brady more options underneath the New Orleans coverage rather than hoping for the home-run opportunities that just aren’t there. At this point in the rivalry, the sample size is too broad to ignore. The Saints offense has scored 30.8 points per game since Arians and Bowles were hired (not including a couple of defensive touchdown returns), while allowing just 16.7 points per game on defense against Tampa Bay. It’s possible the vaunted postseason version of Brady finally appears, but this one shouldn’t be close now that the Saints have all of their weapons back. Final score: Saints 34, Bucs 24