Football's new frontiers: why India and China could be the next global superpowers

For all football’s claims to be a universal language, the planet's four most populous countries - India, China, USA and Indonesia - all failed to reach the 2018 World Cup. China have only ever qualified once, in 2002; India and Indonesia have never made it. Somehow, the world’s game has rather passed the biggest countries by. Yet this means there are still new lands for football to conquer. 

"Cricket was the game of the fathers. Football is the game of the sons," proclaimed a document promoting the creation of the Indian Super League in 2014, a copycat of the Indian Premier League cricket competition. If the hyperbole was inescapable, the years since have vindicated optimism about football’s capacity for growth.

Football is now the third most popular sport to watch in India, though the ISL’s average audience is only one-fifth of the IPL and one-third of the Pro Kabbadi League. The fan base comprises two distinct groups: the hardcore, in Kerala, north-east India and West Bengal - where football out-ranks cricket; and a new type of fan, who are urban, young and affluent. In Bangalore and Mumbai, following European football is viewed as aspirational. 

Attendances for domestic matches are broadly growing, and doubled in the I-League’s most recent season, albeit only from 5,000 to 10,000. India’s last game, against Kenya, was an 18,000 sell-out, after captain Sunil Chhetri made a public appeal - supported by Virat Kohli - for more Indians to attend games. 

The fans who do come to India’s internationals are seeing an improving team. Three years ago India were ranked 173rd, their lowest position ever, on the Fifa rankings. Today they are ranked 97th, three places off a new peak. 

“There is no going back for Indian football now,” says Stephen Constantine, the Englishman who is India’s head coach. “We have instilled belief and confidence in what we do both on and off the pitch, from the new sports science department, match analysis departments to a scouting network as well as our medical department.”

If the national team are to improve further, Indian football needs to improve grassroots facilities and coaching. Youth development “is much better than it was before,” says Cyrus Confectioner, from the Football Players Association of India - though he believes that there is “regional bias,” in the selection of national and age-group sides. And, outside the north-east states, only a few clubs invest adequately in developing players. “For a country of a billion plus, there are just a handful of proper academies.” 

A glimpse of a better future is the Baby League, launched this year for children from as young as under-six. It marries two growing facets of Indian life: football and mobile technology - teams and players register, and organise matches, using an app. 

The forces driving football forward in India are emblematic of what is happening in the most populous countries in the world. Across China, India, Indonesia and the US, the audience share that football commands among those under 35 is “significantly higher” than for those over 35, says Kevin Alavy from Futures Sport

In the USA, football is now the second most popular sport to watch among those 18-34, helped by the growth in the Hispanic population. Among all adults, football is more popular to watch than ever before, according to a Gallup poll this year. While just 1% of those over 55 state football is their favourite spectator sport, 11% under 25 do; those who self-identify as liberals, rather than moderates or conservatives, are over twice as likely to have football as their favourite spectator sport. 

"Relevance within the US market is increasing each year, and I expect that to continue," observes Bob Foose, the executive director of the Major League Soccer Players Association. He predicts that, within 10-20 years, MLS will be established among the top eight football leagues in the world. 

Globalisation, and the rise in TV and then broadband and mobile penetration, has made elite football ubiquitous in virtually every nation. Despite its troubled football governance - they were suspended from Fifa until 2016 - Indonesia has the highest average Premier League audience of any country in the world, even the UK, according to Futures Sport. 

For all its multifarious failings, Fifa can claim credit for football’s growth. The governing body has repeatedly enlarged the World Cup, and expanded the number of places available beyond the traditional powers in Europe and South America. In the 1978 World Cup, there were only three places available for North and Central America, Asia, Africa and Oceania combined; this year, there are 13. It has also invested in comprehensive regional qualification events, for the most and least successful nations alike. For the 2018 World Cup, 209 nations entered the qualification process; there are only 193 members of the United Nations.

The Women’s World Cup has also been used to expand football’s global footprint. Both China and the US have hosted two editions of the tournament each; Fifa’s ultimate fantasy - a China-US final - happened as far back as 1999. Over 25 million in the US watched the Women’s World Cup final against Japan in 2015. 

Fifa’s hope is that the expansion to 48 teams in the Men’s World Cup will turbocharge a new phase of globalisation. It is revealing that the two regions that will benefit most from the rising numbers are North and Central America, which will go from 3.5 berths to six; and Asia, which will go from 4.5 spots to eight. This will have the very happy by-product of increasing the chances of the largest countries reaching the Word Cup. 

The allocation of Fifa’s marquee events is also showing ever-greater focus upon the biggest economies in the world. The USA hosted the 1994 World Cup, and - Donald Trump’s tweets notwithstanding - its joint bid with Canada and Mexico remains the favourite to host the 2026 World Cup. Last year Chinese President Xi Jinping told Fifa boss Gianni Infantino he hoped to host a World Cup “in the future”, with 2034 seen as a likely date. 

Staging the World Cup would fit in with Xi’s love of football and desire to improve China’s team - the nation recently announced plans to create 50,000 football new youth academies by 2025. Lower-profile events are also being used to galvanise support for football in emerging nations: India successfully hosted the under-17 World Cup last year, the first time it has ever hosted any global tournament. 

Naturally, all of this bodes well for Fifa’s bottom-line. Despite its absence from this World Cup, the US now pays more to Fifa for broadcasting rights than any other country, and rose from being the 17th largest TV audience for the 2002 World Cup to the fourth by 2014, according to Futures Sport. 

Popularising football in the biggest countries in the world seamlessly marries two of Fifa's aims: growing the sport, and making more cash. As football’s global ascent continues, that could leave less viewer-time - and so broadcasting money - to be shared among other sports.