NFL betting lessons: 4 Week 10 favorites got 80 percent or more of bets, and they all lost
The public isn't always wrong. You can't just find which team is getting the highest percentage of bets, take the other side and win every time.
But, you can probably profit more often than not. Especially if it's a prime-time game.
Four favorites in Week 10 were getting about 80 percent or more of the bets in their games at BetMGM. All four lost outright. Three were favored by a touchdown or more.
It started on Thursday night. The Ravens were getting about 80 percent of bets as 7.5-point favorites. They lost to the Miami Dolphins.
On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 9.5-point favorites against the Washington Football Team and the Arizona Cardinals closed at -7 against the Carolina Panthers, but were as high as 10-point favorites most of the week. The Buccaneers were getting 87 percent of the money and the Cardinals were at 81 percent. They both lost outright.
Then came Monday night. Almost 90 percent of bets were on the Rams as 3.5-point favorites against the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams got blown out.
In other words, what a Week 10 for the sportsbook.
Alarms should have been going off when there was line movement against the money. The line was rushing towards the Panthers even though a large percentage of the overall money was on the Cardinals. The Rams line moved from -4 to -3.5 despite all the Los Angeles money. There was even a $110,000 bet on the Rams at BetMGM and the line didn't move.
When there's reverse line movement like that, you need to at least note it. It typically means that books are paying close attention to sharp action on the other side of the public and they move the line the other way.
Again, it's not a foolproof method. The public will be right sometimes. But when you see 80 percent or more of bets coming in on one side, just realize that the casinos in Las Vegas don't usually go broke.
Packers are on an ATS roll
The Green Bay Packers got blown out and lost in Week 1. That's the last time bettors didn't cash with them.
The Packers have won against the spread in every game since Week 1. That included a late cover at the Chiefs in Week 9 when Jordan Love was quarterback. ATS streaks don't last forever, but they rarely last nine games either. If you weren't dissuaded by the Packers' Week 1 flop and have been betting them since, you're having a heck of a season. It's a reminder to not overreact to any one game, especially in Week 1.
Ravens, Bucs, Chiefs underperforming vs. spread
There are three good teams — if any team is "good" this season — with losing records against the spread. The Chiefs' issues against the spread are well documented, but they got an easy cover on Sunday night. They're 3-7 against the spread, according to Covers.com. Baltimore and Tampa Bay were two of Week 10's most disappointing teams and maybe we should have seen it coming. With the losses, the Ravens and Bucs are both just 3-6 against the spread.
It's an underdog season
Dogs have been on a really nice run lately and their season record is strong. Covers.com says underdogs are 86-63-1 against the spread. That's 57.7 percent. Road underdogs are even better, going 56-34-1 against the spread, a 62.2 percent mark.
Given that we're 10 weeks in, it's safe to assume underdogs will continue to be the better play the rest of the way.
