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NLCS preview: Dodgers vs. Cubs is a heavyweight rematch

It’s fitting we ended up here again. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs meeting again for the National League pennant, meeting again for a chance to play in the World Series.

They were here last year too, two teams looking to get over their respective humps. The Cubs and that 108-year World Series drought — the Dodgers were one of challenges in their way. The Dodgers and their recent history of postseason shortcomings — the Cubs were another team that knocked them out early.

Will it be different this time around? Might be. The Dodgers have ramped up for just this moment. Their rotation is deeper and more effective than a year ago now that they have Yu Darvish. Their lineup is more dangerous with rookie star Cody Bellinger and the breakout of Chris Taylor and more dynamic with the addition of Logan Forsythe.

The Cubs are the Cubs. Their lineup is deep. Their rotation is filled with postseason veterans. And this year, they have a new weapon in Jose Quintana, and they’ve swapped Aroldis Chapman for Wade Davis in their closer spot.

This is, without a doubt, a heavyweight matchup.

SCHEDULE
Game 1: Saturday at 8 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium (TBS)
Game 2: Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium (TBS)
Game 3: Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field (TBS)
Game 4: Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field (TBS)
Game 5*: Thursday at 8 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field (TBS)
Game 6*: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 8 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium (TBS)
Game 7*: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium (TBS)
* in necessary

PREVIOUSLY
The history we remember most is the NLCS last year, but that’s not the last time these two teams have met. They played six times this season with the Dodgers getting four wins. Consider this, though: Those games were a long time ago.

The played three games in Chicago in April and the Cubs won two of them. They played three more games in late May at Dodger Stadium and the Dodgers swept that series. That was, however, during the Cubs’ worth month of the season.

Jon Lester of the Cubs and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. (AP)
Jon Lester of the Cubs and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. (AP)

PITCHING
Game 1: Clayton Kershaw (18-4, 2.31 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (11-11, 4.15 ERA)
Game 2: Rich Hill (12-8, 3.32 ERA) vs. TBD
Game 3: Yu Darvish (10-12, 3.86 ERA) vs. TBD
Game 4: Alex Wood (16-3, 2.72 ERA) vs. TBD
Game 5*: TBD vs. TBD
Game 6*: TBD vs. TBD
Game 7* TBD vs. TBD
*if necessary

Simply put, the Dodgers boast arguably the deepest rotation in the game. People like to point to Clayton Kershaw’s bloated 4.63 ERA in the postseason, but it’s somewhat misleading. Yes, he’s had poor starts, but he also posted a nice 0.69 ERA in two starts in the 2013 NLDS, a 2.63 ERA in two starts in the 2015 NLDS and a 3.00 ERA in two starts in the 2016 NLCS. So, he’s still a threat to turn in a dominant start.

Rich Hill and Alex Wood are capable of incredible performances when healthy, but both typically miss time each year with injuries. For Hill, it came early in the year. He finished the season strong with a 3.01 ERA over the second half. Wood didn’t begin the year as a starter, but thrived once he was put into the rotation. He was also managed carefully, but would have been a Cy Young candidate had he remained healthy and made 30 starts. Both players are healthy now, which was the entire point of the Dodgers stocking their team with depth.

Oh, and there’s also Yu Darvish. Most years, Darvish is also a Cy Young contender, but he’s coming off a down year in 2017. His performance improved in nine starts with Los Angeles, and he was masterful in his NLDS start against Arizona. All four pitchers are major threats.

After an exhausting Game 5 against the Washington Nationals, the Cubs have opted to play their rotation plans close to the vest. After throwing 2/3 of an inning in Game 5 of the NLDS, the team opted to go with Jose Quintana over a fully rested John Lackey. Given Lackey’s struggles in 2017, a slightly diminished Quintana is probably the better choice.

After that, the Cubs will counter with some combination of last year’s trio. Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks will once again try to lead the club to yet another World Series. Lester doesn’t get as much pub as Madison Bumgarner for his postseason heroics, but he should. Over 143 1/3 innings, he has a 2.57 ERA. He’s as dependable as they come.

At times, it felt like Arrieta and Hendricks were struggling to capitalize on their 2016 success. The two worked through some issues, including diminished velocity, to turn things around. By the end of the season, Arrieta (3.53 ERA) and Hendricks (3.03 ERA) still finished with numbers you would expect from them by now.

Kris Bryant needs to have a bigger presence in the NLCS for the Cubs. (AP)
Kris Bryant needs to have a bigger presence in the NLCS for the Cubs. (AP)

Kris Bryant needs to have a bigger presence in the NLCS for the Cubs. (AP)THREE KEYS FOR CUBS
Slumping stars: The Cubs survived the NLDS despite getting very little from Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. You could even throw Anthony Rizzo in there, though he did contribute early in the series. But Bryant and Baez really struggled, going a combined 4-for-34. Cubs fans will forgive them based on their production last postseason, but the team will need them to snap out of it if they hope to advance to a second straight World Series.

• Six for starters: The theme of the postseason has been early exits by starting pitchers. The Cubs were hampered by that too, though not to the extent of other teams. Still, with the bullpen being taxed in the NLDS and Wade Davis in particular being extended beyond his usual means, the Cubs are going to need Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks to carry the pitching load. Six innings seems like a reasonable target. If they get more per outing, they should be in a good shape.

• Protect the home field: We know the Cubs are capable of stealing multiple games on the road in the postseason. They did in the World Series last season and they just did it again in Washington. Still, this Dodgers team might be the best they’ve faced in a postseason series over the last three seasons, and that includes last year’s Indians and the Mets in the 2015 NLCS. The margin for error will be slim, and perhaps even more so after being pushed to the limit in the NLDS. One slip up at home would be problematic. They might not recover from two.

Yasiel Puig was effective and infectious for the Dodgers in the NLDS. (AP)
Yasiel Puig was effective and infectious for the Dodgers in the NLDS. (AP)

THREE KEYS FOR DODGERS
Win Game 1: Like Arizona in the NLDS, the Cubs come in having exhausted every option imaginable just to survive against Washington. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will be rested and able to line up as they choose, which begins with Clayton Kershaw in Game 1. As we said in the NLDS, it sounds obvious to even mention this, but that doesn’t make it any less vital. The Dodgers won’t have a bigger advantage going into a game during this series. If they let it slip away, they’ll likely regret it.

• Wild Horse: How much fun was Yasiel Puig to watch during the NLDS? His energy was infectious and it clearly rubbed off on his teammates in a good way. The Dodgers will need more of that energy in the NLCS, because the Cubs will have an answer for everything and will push them to every limit. More importantly, they’ll need Puig’s production to maximize the potential of their offense. In many ways, the Wild Horse is the wild card for Los Angeles.

• Loaded bullpen: Dave Roberts didn’t hesitate putting his best bullpen arms out there during the NLDS. We’re guessing he’ll rely on them even more in the NLCS. And why not? The trio of Kenley Jansen, Brandon Morrow and new reliever Kenta Maeda looked dominant, allowing one earned run over 11 combined innings. Maeda is the x-factor here. The longtime starter can be used at any point in the game and could go multiple innings if needed. He could be the NL’s version of Andrew Miller, which is quite the weapon to have.

FIVE KEY NUMBERS
.368: Lefties aren’t supposed to hit Clayton Kershaw, but nobody told Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs’ first baseman has an excellent .368 batting average against Kershaw over 21 plate appearances. He’s also tagged the best pitcher in baseball for three home runs. It’s a small sample, sure, but don’t assume the left-handed Rizzo is an automatic out when Kershaw is on the mound.

10: Number of relievers in the series who posted at least a strikeout per inning in 2017. The Dodgers have six, the Cubs have four. Both bullpens are incredibly deep, and rely heavily on whiffs to get out of jams. It won’t be much of a relief (no pun intended) once Kershaw or Lester get removed from their starts.

12.2: Combined fWAR of both third baseman. Everyone knows reigning MVP Kris Bryant is excellent, but Justin Turner somehow remains underrated. Turner was limited to just 130 games this season, but could have put himself in the MVP hunt had he stayed healthy.

3: Number of categories Kershaw led the league in this season. He had 18 wins, a 2.31 ERA and a 6.73 strikeout to walk rate. Remember, he missed over a month of the year with an injury and still put up unbelievable numbers. He’s just that good.

12: Number of players in the series with at least 20 home runs. These teams aren’t all about pitching. They can hit too. Each club boasts six players who smashed at least 20 home runs this year. Every pitcher will have to bring their A game or they’ll be punished severely.

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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at mikeozstew@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!