Predicting the Patriots’ 2022 season, from Week 1 to Week 18

The New England Patriots are headed into the 2022 season, and finally, they know the order of their opponents. It may look like a nice setup as you start scrolling through the schedule.

But then you get to Week 13. That’s when the Patriots season is likely to go off the rails. In the final few weeks of the season, New England faces the Bills two times along with matchups against the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals.

That’s not the slate of games that you want to face as you push for the playoffs. Yikes.

Let’s go through the entire season to break down how the Patriots will fare in every game to determine their final record.

WEEK 1: @ the Miami Dolphins

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At least this game isn’t at the end of the season, right? New England has historically struggled in Miami during the end of the season. Perhaps it’s the heat. Perhaps it has become a superstitious mental hurdle.

Either way, it won’t be a factor in 2022. The Patriots get the Dolphins early in the season. Because Miami has a new head coach in Mike McDaniel, who is trying to get his new talent (like Tyreek Hill) to coalesce in his system, the Patriots can nab a season-opening victory.

Patriots win, and start 1-0.

WEEK 2: at the Pittsburgh Steelers

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Whether Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky is starting at QB, the Patriots won’t be intimidated. This game should be a relatively easy win — even with Pittsburgh boasting a really impressive group of skill players and an improved offensive line. Still, against those QBs, the Patriots take care of business.

Patriots win, and advance to 2-0.

WEEK 3: vs. the Baltimore Ravens

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The Ravens are going to be an improved team in 2022 — it felt like they had a streak of tough luck on the field, particularly with injuries. Baltimore isn’t stocked with talent to support quarterback Lamar Jackson, however. The majority of their best players are on defense. So this one might be a slugfest. Ultimately, I think the Ravens eke out a win.

The Patriots lose and drop to 2-1.

WEEK 4: @ the Green Bay Packers

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Aaron Rodgers vs. Mac Jones?

Sorry, New England, I’m betting Rodgers wins that one every time.

Patriots lose and fall to 2-2.

WEEK 5: vs. the Detroit Lions

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The Lions are building something truly special, with such an impressive unit of young players. But I don’t think they’re ready to win big games in 2022. Give them a year to marinate. Jones and the Patriots coast to victory, with Bill Belichick’s defense getting the better of Jared Goff — as usual.

Patriots win and jump to 3-2.

WEEK 6: at the Cleveland Browns

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Is Deshaun Watson playing? That’s the question. The NFL could hand down a suspension for their investigation into the allegations of sexual assault and harassment. Watson dodged any convictions in a court of law. But perhaps the NFL will rule differently than the courts.

At this point, Watson isn’t slated to serve a suspension. Until that changes, the Browns are probably going to win this game.

Patriots take a defeat and regress to 3-3.

WEEK 7: vs. the Chicago Bears

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This team is a boneyard of castoff veterans — with a few dewy-eyed youngsters. And there’s Justin Fields. That won’t cut it against what is likely to be a tough, physical Patriots team.

New England wins and jumps to 4-3.

WEEK 8: at the New York Jets

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The Jets have put second-year quarterback Zach Wilson in a spot where he could to take a massive leap forward. But I’ll believe it when I see it. Wilson’s rookie season was so bad that he’s probably not taking a big leap forward, even with Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson.

The Patriots log a blowout and advance to 5-3.

WEEK 9: vs. the Indianapolis Colts

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Matt Ryan may be past his prime, but he’s about to get an outrageously strong supporting cast. And this defense still kicks butt.

New England loses and drop to 5-4.

WEEK 11: vs. the New York Jets

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Another game against the Jets? Another win, especially because the Patriots are at home.

New England jumps to 6-4.

WEEK 12: at the Minnesota Vikings

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The Patriots are travelling on a short week to Minnesota to play what is likely to be a middling Vikings team. It’s a tough one, but I’m going to give the Patriots the benefit of the doubt. Kirk Cousins Jr. (aka Mac Jones) takes down Kirk Cousins.

By the way, this Thanksgiving game kicks off a four-game stint of primetime night games.

The Patriots win and move on to 7-4.

WEEK 13: vs. the Buffalo Bills

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So you’re probably feeling excited and optimistic about the Patriots. They’re off to a good start in my hypothetical projection! But it’s about to get ugly, folks — really ugly.

New England managed to take down Buffalo at Gillette Stadium last year — but it required an absolutely insane weather system. Barring the return of 70 mile per hour winds, the Patriots aren’t beating Josh Allen in 2022.

The Patriots suffer their first defeat to the Bills and fall to 7-5.

WEEK 14: at the Arizona Cardinals

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Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are jockey for power this offseason over an impending mega-contract. But that drama won’t impact Arizona’s on-field performance. This offense is going to be very hard to stop, especially with DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension at this point in the season.

New England loses. They’re 7-6.

WEEK 15: at the Las Vegas Raiders

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Belichick’s assistants have a way of taking him down. And Josh McDaniels is no exception. He did it when he was the coach in Denver. I think he’ll do it again in Vegas with his enormously talented team. Finally, the Patriots night game streak is over.

New England loses again and falls to 7-7.

WEEK 16: vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

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Some teams struggle after losing in the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals, however, don’t seem like that kind of team. They are ascending — and likely to be better in 2022 than they were in 2023.

This is an easy one to project.

Patriots lose and fall to 7-8. It’s their first time falling below .500.

WEEK 17: vs. the Miami Dolphins

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The Patriots would be angry. They’d be frustrated. And they’d take it out on a mediocre Miami team. New England isn’t that much better than the Dolphins, but they manage a sweep in 2022.

The Patriots (finally) win (again) and jump to 8-8.

WEEK 18: @ the Buffalo Bills

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Imagine the playoffs are on the line. The Patriots would be exactly .500 going into this game. If they win, they’re probably in the playoffs. If they lose, they’re probably out.

But it’s the Bills. And let’s be honest: Buffalo is a much better team. New England disappoints on the road.

The Patriots lose. They finish 8-9. (And they likely miss the playoffs in a crowded AFC.)

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