Thanksgiving Daily Fantasy Football: Week 12 value picks and strategy
By Jordan Vanek
The basis for being successful in any daily fantasy sports contest, whether cash games or large-field GPPs, is finding value to build around. Using 4for4’s Yahoo! DFS Value Report, we can uncover some of the best values at each position for the Week 12 Thanksgiving slate.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff, Lions $21
The Bears and Lions are very different teams than they were in their first matchup. The Bears no longer have starter Khalil Mack and are potentially missing Allen Robinson, Eddie Jackson, and Akeem Hicks for this matchup. The Detroit Lions have Taylor Decker back and have added Josh Reynolds, who ran routes on 95 percent of dropbacks in his first game. Goff threw for 299 yards in the first appearance against the Bears, and in recent weeks this Bears secondary has given up over eight yards per pass attempt.
Josh Allen, Bills $38
In three of the last four games, the Saints have given up over 25 fantasy points to the quarterback position. Since Week 8, the Saints are generating pressure at the 22nd-lowest rate in the NFL and are giving up 8.9 yards per passing attempt, the second-most in the NFL. Allen can get it done on the ground as well — in 70% of his games he has carried the ball five or more times.
Running Backs
David Montgomery, Bears $26
Since Week 8, the Lions are allowing five yards a carry and 131.3 yards per game on the ground. The Lions have given up 17 touchdowns to running backs and allowed six to rush for 90 or more yards. In David Montgomery’s two games back he has at least 15 touches in each game and has run a route on 58 percent of dropbacks. In the first game against Detroit, Montgomery ran for 106 yards on 23 carries and found the end zone twice.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys $17
Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a knee injury, Amari Cooper is out because of COVID and CeeDee Lamb will potentially miss the game with a concussion. This will open up the door for more opportunities for Pollard, who averages 6.1 yards per touch this season. Pollard has seen over 15 touches in three games this year, and in each of these games, he found his way over 10 fantasy points.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney, Bears $16
The Detroit Lions have been the worst team in the NFL against the deep ball, giving up 78 yards per game on passes 20+ yards downfield. In the past two games, the Bears have thrown the most 20+ yard passes in the entire NFL, and Mooney has been the most targeted wide receiver on these passes. Mooney is also averaging a 34% target share in his last three games and had a 47% target share last weekend against the Ravens.
Josh Reynolds, Lions $10
Reynolds is the pass-catcher to pair with Goff, and his salary is as cheap as they get as far as pass-catchers go. Reynolds had 59% of Detroit’s air yards in his first game, and the Lions have one passing touchdown on the year off 20+ yard throws — which was against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have given up the second-most touchdowns on 20+ yard throws.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz, Cowboys $22
In 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, the Raiders are tied as the fourth-worst team against tight ends, and the Cowboys are dealing with key injuries to their primary pass catchers. CeeDee Lamb is in concussion protocol, and Amari Cooper will be missing this game due to COVID. The Raiders have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season. Schultz has received six or more targets in seven games this season which is the seventh most amongst tight ends.
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Dawson Knox, Bills $17
Knox ran the most routes for the Bills last weekend, and amongst tight ends has the fourth-highest percentage of games with over 25% target share. Knox also saw the highest routes run percentage of any player in last week’s game against the Colts and is second on the team in red-zone targets despite missing two weeks.
Defenses
Raiders, $10
The Raiders are the minimum-salaried defense on the slate, and the Cowboys are possibly going to be without Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb. Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a knee injury and has been in and out of games. Tyron Smith is expected to return from injury this week, but the Raiders have two of the better edge rushers in the NFL. Maxx Crosby is second in the league in quarterback hits, and Yannick Ngakoue has seven sacks. The Raiders’ defense has had nine turnovers in their last five games.
Bills, $18
The Bills defense has been one of the best in the NFL all year, allowing a score on the second-fewest drives, and the fewest yards per play. The Saints will be without their two starting tackles, and the rookie that replaced one of them is having season-ending surgery. This doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the league leaders in pressures on the season.
