The Moment: ROCCAT's final perfect circumstance

Since 2016 dawned, Team ROCCAT has built the budget roster: a team that appears to have deliberate execution, but won’t top the standings. Somehow, they always defy expectations; they always perform worse.

2017 LCS Spring’s ROCCAT lineup ticked the same boxes. Ambrož “Phaxi” Hren’s modest showings in Challenge France highlighted him as a strong rookie investment. Nubar “Maxlore” Sarafian’s leadership on Giants Gaming in 2016 LCS Summer created a surprising, albeit one-dimensional, style that lead the team to third place in the regular season. Petter “Hjarnan” Freyschuss has finished rosters with stable and consistent damage. Unlike many other LCS teams, ROCCAT actually bothered to try out their Korean support.

ROCCAT still failed to win a single series until Week 7. Despite members of the team insisting the environment remained bright, crediting support Kim “Wadid” Baein for keeping the mood light in post-game interviews, ROCCAT teetered at the bottom until they played the only team in the EU LCS that seemed like they might be worse.

The three-game series between Origen and ROCCAT featured a 78-minute Game 1 victory from Origen with all the right components to make for one of the least satisfying and most draining games of all time. Both teams remained in their seats until well after Berlin’s public transportation shutdown. The casting duo of Trevor “Qu1ckshot” Henry and Martin “Deficio” Lynge received more praise than ROCCAT for their eventual victory.

But ROCCAT’s first victory turned their fate. They grasped the last branch and not only pulled themselves out of the Promotion Tournament, but a five-win streak now sets them up to overcome Fnatic and advance to playoffs.

There’s only one problem; with Fnatic’s win over Giants in Week 9, not only do Fnatic have to lose their remaining series, but Team ROCCAT need to defeat G2 Esports, a team that hasn’t lost an EU LCS series in over a year. At bare minimum, ROCCAT rely on Fnatic to go 0-4 and then must take at least one game from G2 to finish with a better win-loss differential than Fnatic.

It’s easy to discount ROCCAT’s chances here. Clearly, this is where their streak ends. So far, four of their five victories come over teams in the bottom half of the standings, and ROCCAT have more than just their own improvements in cross map play and the ever-evolving form of Phaxi to thank for their sudden spurt up the standings. A set of perfect circumstances aligned to give ROCCAT this shot.

Giants Gaming’s loss to Team Vitality the same night ROCCAT landed their first victory against Origen still feels like a fluke. ROCCAT should have competed with them to merely stay out of Promotion. With a Game 1 win and a massive lead in Game 2 acquired through a strategy they couldn’t execute more than once, an Orianna bug felled Giants, opening the door for ROCCAT to tie and eventually pass them.

Members of Fnatic, ROCCAT’s current competition, have hinted at internal strife. They’ve lost their head coach Nicholas “NicoThePico” Korsgaard, bowing out for poor drafts. The swap of Maurice “Amazing” Stückenschneider and Mads “Broxah” Brock-Pedersen during the season revealed that Fnatic’s early training and time investment didn’t quite pay off. An apparent reliance on lane swapping to remain even reflects that this team often loses Teleport advantage.

ROCCAT’s one Top 4 conquest, Misfits, have had holes in their strategy all season. ROCCAT only needed to stay in lane to compensate for the fact that Misfits over-invest their players in first turret takes. Though ROCCAT played well, Misfits hitting rock bottom, so to speak, was overdue.

Many of Felix “Betsy” Edling’s most played champions in Vladimir, Viktor, and Swain (arguably his most successful pick of his LCS career with eight wins and three losses) have swung into the meta more strongly on Patch 7.5. ROCCAT now have insurance for fumbled mid game plays as long as they keep pressure until Betsy comes on line, despite his more sheepish playstyle.

Aside from steady improvements in communication, ROCCAT have enjoyed this small string of perfect circumstances. Giants didn’t take out Fnatic for them this past week, but that merely sets up one final stroke to make ROCCAT’s playoff push all the sweeter.

Now, G2 Esports stand undefeated. Team ROCCAT shouldn’t beat them this week, in their last best-of-three of the split, especially if G2 topple Fnatic first. Winning one game and leaving Fnatic’s record up to fate is a smaller ask. If karma exists, ROCCAT’s 2016 fraught with bottom two placements and near relegation may have saved up enough to edge them into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season.

All split, writers have complained about the boring lack of storylines in EU LCS. Perhaps that’s about to change with one monumental upset. If nothing else, a series between what appeared to be the best and the worst team in Group A at the start has just become the most anticipated match of the season.

You can follow Kelsey Moser on Twitter @karonmoser.